Trump’s Iran talk tease gives stocks a little oxygen

A tiny bit of geopolitical relief

U.S. stocks were wobbling on Wednesday after Tuesday’s rally, but the big mood shift came from Washington. President Trump said Iran talks “could be happening over the next two days” in Pakistan, building on Vice President JD Vance’s comment that there had been “a lot of progress” in weekend talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad.

That’s the kind of headline that can move markets even when it doesn’t come with a signed agreement and a ribbon cutting. Why? Because investors hate uncertainty almost as much as they hate surprise inflation.

Rates still get a vote

The Fed is still the other giant hand on the steering wheel. CME FedWatch has markets pricing a 99.5% chance that the central bank leaves rates unchanged at this month’s meeting, so the real question is less “will they cut?” and more “what tone do they use while politely doing nothing?”

Bond yields were hanging around too, with the 10-year at 4.25% and the 2-year at 3.76%. Translation: the market is still trying to figure out whether growth, inflation, or geopolitics is the bigger boss fight.

The stock-specific popcorn

The market backdrop was broad, but a few names had their own mini soap operas:

• ASML climbed after beating first-quarter earnings and raising its 2026 revenue outlook.
• Broadcom jumped on a partnership with Meta for custom AI chips.
• GitLab rallied after teaming up with Google Cloud.
• Terawulf sank after preliminary results and a common stock offering.
• Stellantis popped on a strong shipments update.

So yes, the macro story is about diplomacy, rates, and oil-scented nerves. But the stock market is still a patchwork quilt of earnings beats, AI hype, and the occasional capital raise wake-up call.

Big picture: if the Iran talks keep cooling tensions, that can help risk assets breathe easier. But as always, the market will need more than vibes — it wants actual progress, cooler inflation, and fewer surprises from the global stress machine.