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The glow-up got a reality check
Ero Copper has been on a monster run — the stock has surged roughly 194% over the past year — but Goldman Sachs just stepped in with a classic “nice run, maybe pump the brakes” downgrade. The firm moved the stock to Neutral from Buy and cut its price target to $31 from $33.
Why Goldman’s cooling off
The bank says the next 12 months don’t look as juicy as they used to. Translation: copper prices may not have a ton more upside, operational uncertainty is still hanging around, and the valuation is starting to look less like a bargain-bin special and more like a fully loaded checkout cart.
Goldman also pointed to slower-than-expected momentum at Tucumã, which matters because investors have been rewarding Ero for production growth and commodity strength. When the market has already priced in the good vibes, any wobble in execution gets extra attention.
The guidance math got less friendly
Goldman’s note also leaned on Ero’s 2026 guidance, which it says still needs more operational improvement to hit. The firm now sees current guidance implying a 9% to 14% free cash flow yield in 2026-27, down from the much chattier 18% to 25% it expected for 2025-26 late last year.
That’s the kind of revision that can make a stock look less like a momentum rocket and more like a “show me” story. Big picture: Ero Copper still has believers, but after a huge run, investors are being asked to pay attention to boring things like costs, volumes, and execution. And unfortunately, boring stuff is usually what decides whether a rally sticks.