TCOM
Morgan Stanley hits the brakes a bit
Morgan Stanley took a fresh look at Trip.com and came away a little less excited. The firm lowered its revenue forecasts for 2026 through 2028 by 0.6% to 1.7%, pointing to slower hotel revenue growth and weaker operating leverage.
The real sting: earnings expectations got trimmed
This wasn’t just a tiny pencil-mark edit. Morgan Stanley also cut its adjusted EPS estimates for 2026, 2027, and 2028 by 1.3%, 2.5%, and 3.7%, respectively. Translation: the travel platform may still be growing, but the path to fatter profits looks a little less smooth.
Why investors should care
When a broker starts shaving long-range forecasts, it usually means the market story has to do a bit more work to justify the current valuation. If hotel demand cools or leverage stays muted, Trip.com could have a harder time delivering the kind of earnings surprise bulls love.
Same stock, slightly less swagger
This doesn’t scream disaster — more like a recalibration. Morgan Stanley is basically saying, “Trip.com still has a business, just maybe not the turbocharged version everyone was hoping for.”
Big picture: Wall Street still likes the travel trade enough to stay engaged, but the easy upside story is getting a little more complicated.