BlackRock’s chip call says the rally may still have legs

The setup: AI stocks get another pep talk

BlackRock is sounding more upbeat on U.S. stocks, and its latest note is basically a giant green checkmark for semiconductors. The firm says chip earnings could jump 80% in 2026, with tech overall now seen growing profits 43% next year.

That matters because the market has been living through a weird little split-screen: valuations for tech are cooling off while profit growth is speeding up. In plain English, that can be rocket fuel for names like Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom, and TSMC if investors decide the AI trade still has room to run.

Why chip bulls are grinning

BlackRock’s angle is simple: if earnings keep exploding, the sector’s premium doesn’t look quite as spicy as it used to. Nvidia still looks like the anchor of the whole AI hardware machine, while AMD is trying to muscle deeper into data centers with its Instinct GPUs.

A few nuggets that caught attention:

• Nvidia’s fiscal 2026 revenue is being forecast at about $215.94 billion, up 65% year over year
• AMD’s data center revenue is projected to rise 73% to $28.7 billion
• AMD’s data center GPU revenue alone is expected to more than double

That’s the kind of math that keeps growth investors glued to their screens and their espresso.

But the macro monster is still in the room

Not everyone is cheering. Citadel’s Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could tip the world into recession, which is a very different vibe from “AI supercycle forever.”

And yes, Nvidia and friends still face real-world bottlenecks — think shipping snarls, energy costs, and supply chain headaches. So while the earnings story looks shiny, the risk story is still doing backflips in the background.

Big picture: if BlackRock’s call is right, semis could keep doing the heavy lifting for the market’s next leg higher. If the geopolitical mess gets worse, though, even the best chip story can get a lot less glamorous, fast.