QQQ
From panic to party in 11 sessions
The Nasdaq 100 basically did an emotional 180. On March 30, its 14-day RSI was sitting at 28 — deep in oversold territory, the market equivalent of “I need a nap and maybe a therapist.” By April 15, it had blasted up to 70.5, which puts it in overbought territory and makes this the fastest oversold-to-overbought swing in the index’s recorded history.
Why the market moved so fast
This wasn’t just random tech-bro enthusiasm. Stocks rallied hard after the ceasefire announcement and the growing hope of a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That eased a chunk of geopolitical anxiety and sent investors sprinting back into riskier corners of the market.
- The transition took 11 trading sessions.
- The prior fastest move was 20 sessions in November 2021.
- The long-run average is 67 sessions — basically three months.
- The old-school benchmark for patience? 232 sessions in June 2003.
What this does — and doesn’t — mean
An overbought RSI doesn’t automatically mean tech is about to roll over. It just means the buying has been intense and concentrated, like everyone showed up to the same concert at the same time and crushed the front row.
For you, the bigger takeaway is that markets just repriced the ceasefire scenario in a hurry. That can be bullish if the peace narrative sticks — but it can also get awkward fast if the geopolitical backdrop starts acting like a sequel nobody asked for.
Big picture
This is less about one day’s rally and more about how quickly investors can swing from fear to FOMO when the macro script changes. In other words: tech didn’t just bounce. It snapped back like a rubber band that had been stretched way too far.