MAT
A rare compliment, but not exactly a standing ovation
Mattel just got nudged from “strong sell” to “hold” by Zacks Research. That’s less “we love this stock” and more “maybe don’t run screaming for the exits.”
The upgrade lands after a quarter that wasn’t exactly a toy-box triumph: Mattel reported $0.39 in EPS versus $0.53 expected, and $1.77 billion in revenue versus $1.85 billion expected.
The bad news is still doing cartwheels
Revenue did rise 7.3% year over year, so this wasn’t a total faceplant. But the earnings miss is the kind of thing that makes investors squint a little harder at the margin story, especially when the company is also guiding FY2026 EPS to $1.18–$1.30 while analysts are looking for about $1.70.
In other words: the Street is expecting a bigger comeback than Mattel is currently promising.
Why you should care
This is the classic tug-of-war between sentiment and fundamentals. A higher rating can help sentiment at the margin, but if the numbers keep coming in soft, the stock still has to do the heavy lifting on its own.
And with shares opening around $14.55, Mattel is still sitting below the consensus $18.44 target — which means the market is basically asking, “Can the company actually close that gap, or are we just decorating the slide deck?”
Big picture: Mattel got a slightly better seat at the analyst table, but it still needs cleaner earnings to turn that “hold” into anything more exciting.