AAL
UAL
Curtain up on Q1
American Airlines is headed to the earnings stage before the opening bell on Thursday, and investors are basically asking one question: is the airline finally getting a smoother flight path, or is turbulence still the main feature?
Wall Street is looking for a loss of 46 cents a share on revenue of $13.75 billion. That’s better than the same quarter last year, when AAL lost 59 cents a share and brought in $12.55 billion. In other words, the bar isn’t exactly set at Mount Everest — but it is set a little higher than last time.
The analyst chorus is mixed
The stock has also been getting the usual pre-earnings rumor-and-ratings treatment:
- UBS kept a Buy and nudged its target to $16 from $14
- Citi stayed Buy but cut its target to $14 from $21
- Wells Fargo held Equal-Weight and trimmed its target to $12
- Jefferies kept Hold and lowered its target to $12
- Evercore stuck with In-Line and cut its target to $14
That’s a fancy way of saying analysts still see a business with runway, but nobody’s packing champagne for takeoff just yet.
The merger balloon popped
On April 20, American Airlines said it rejected talks of a possible merger with United Airlines. So if you were hoping for some airline mega-merger soap opera, sorry — the plot twist got swatted down fast.
For investors, the bigger question is whether the company can improve margins and shrink losses without needing a dramatic industry consolidation play. If Thursday’s numbers come in cleaner than expected, AAL gets a little more breathing room. If not, the market will keep treating this like a weather delay that never quite clears.
Big picture: earnings will tell you whether American’s story is getting better on its own — or whether it still needs a tailwind from the rest of the industry.