TPVG
The new math got less generous
Compass Point took a scissors to TriplePoint Venture Growth’s price target, cutting it to $5.75 from $7.50 while keeping a Neutral rating in place. The driver wasn’t some existential business bombshell — it was valuation. The firm lowered the price-to-net-asset-value multiple it applies to TPVG’s forward NAV estimate, which is analyst-speak for: “we like it, but not that much.”
Why this matters to your portfolio
TPVG is already trading at about a 40% discount to NAV, which sounds like a bargain-bin sticker until you remember discount stocks can stay discounted if nobody shows up to close the gap. Compass Point also pointed out the company still hasn’t announced a share repurchase program after its debt refinancing, even though management says one is still under consideration.
The buyback-sized elephant in the room
That matters because buybacks can be a nice little signal flare for BDC investors: if management thinks its own stock is the best place to put capital, the market tends to listen. Without that, Compass Point seems to be saying the shares may be cheap, but cheap alone isn’t a thesis.
Big picture
There’s also a fresh earnings cloud hanging around the name, with TPVG having recently missed Q4 2025 EPS and revenue expectations. So if you own it, you’re basically waiting to see whether the next chapter is “value trap” or “finally, the catalyst.”