UBS stays bullish on Lowe's, even with a haircut

Lowe's wants fewer one-and-done shoppers

UBS reiterated a Buy on Lowe's and kept its price target at $315, backing the company's push into a subscription-based home maintenance service. The pitch is pretty simple: instead of relying only on customers who wander in for paint, lumber, or a random Saturday project, Lowe's wants more recurring relationships that keep the cash register humming.

Why analysts are still playing the long game

That matters because a subscription model can smooth out the bumps in a business that usually depends on housing activity, weather, and whether your sink decides to explode on a Tuesday. UBS said the shift could help Lowe's move from a project-based model to a relationship-based one — which is analyst-speak for "less feast-or-famine, more steady drip."

Not everyone is wearing rose-colored goggles

The call came alongside a few other tweaks from Wall Street:

• TD Cowen cut its target to $280 from $295, citing softer revenue and margin expectations for fiscal 2026.
• RBC Capital raised its target to $264 from $257, but trimmed its first-quarter comparable sales estimate to 0.5% because of winter storm disruptions.

So, yes, the bulls are still here — but they’re not exactly dancing on the table.

Big picture: a better business, not just a bigger store

For investors, the interesting part is less the day-to-day price target shuffle and more the strategic bet. If Lowe's can make subscriptions sticky, it could become a steadier compounder instead of a pure home-improvement traffic story. And in retail, boring recurring revenue is usually the kind of boring people happily pay for.