Jefferies just gave Onto Innovation a bigger AI-packed carrot

Jefferies says the AI packaging story is still alive

Onto Innovation got a little analyst love on Thursday: Jefferies lifted its price target to $325 from $300 and kept a Buy rating. That’s not exactly confetti from the ceiling, but it is another stamp of approval on a stock already trading like the market expects it to keep showing up for the AI party.

Why the Street is paying attention

The big takeaway here isn’t just the higher target. Jefferies said Onto’s recent qualification work brings it closer to regaining lost share in CoWoS-related packaging business from KLA. Translation: the company may be clawing its way back into a hot corner of the semiconductor supply chain, and that’s the kind of thing investors tend to obsess over when AI chips are the talk of the town.

Valuation: expensive, but not in a vacuum

The note also leaned into valuation comparisons. Onto trades at about 29 times calendar 2027 EPS estimates, while Camtek and Nova are sitting at 38 times and 40 times, respectively. So yes, the stock still looks rich on trailing numbers — around 96 times earnings — but on forward estimates it doesn’t look quite as bonkers as the backward-looking multiple suggests.

Big picture

For investors, this is another reminder that Onto Innovation is riding the same AI infrastructure wave as the rest of the semiconductor equipment names. If it keeps making progress in advanced packaging, the stock has a cleaner story than just “hope and hype,” which is usually how the market likes its expensive growth names served.