NEM
Another analyst joins the “show me” camp
National Bank Financial just dialed back its view on Newmont from Outperform to Sector Perform and trimmed the price target to $130 from $140. Translation: the bank still likes the name, but not enough to keep waving the pom-poms.
Why the mood shift?
The firm said it adjusted its model for lower 2026 commodity price forecasts and higher cost estimates. In plain English, that’s the classic double whammy investors hate: less revenue optimism, more expense pressure. And because mining is already a game of thin margins and big machinery, even small cost bumps can turn into a sneaky earnings tax.
Cadia is the plot twist
National Bank also pointed to potential production impacts from the recent seismic event near Cadia, which is now becoming the sort of operational headache that keeps showing up in investor decks like an annoying recurring character. If output gets dinged, the market doesn’t just worry about one quarter — it starts pricing in whether the company can keep the gold flowing at the pace people expected.
Still not exactly a bear case
To be fair, the note wasn’t all doom and gloom. National Bank still called Newmont a likely sector consolidator, flagged the company’s valuation as compelling, and noted its elevated buyback program. So this is more “maybe take a breath” than “abandon ship.”
Big picture: when analysts start trimming targets because costs are rising and production is wobbling, the stock doesn’t need a full-blown crisis to feel the pressure — just enough uncertainty to make investors squint at the numbers a little harder.