NEM
The vibe check just got less shiny
Newmont’s had a monster run — shares are up 72.5% since National Bank’s last upgrade on July 25, 2025 — but the bank is now hitting the brakes on the stock because of cost pressure. In other words: the gold party may still be going, but the tab is starting to look suspiciously large.
Still a gold giant, just with a few more wrinkles
National Bank didn’t exactly turn bearish on the whole story. It pointed out that Newmont still looks like a potential sector consolidator, which is Wall Street code for “this company could still go shopping.” And if you’re a miner with scale, low cost isn’t just nice — it’s the whole game.
A few takeaways from the note:
- Newmont’s valuation still looks compelling
- Its buyback program is elevated, which should keep some investor interest alive
- But higher costs can squeeze margins fast, especially when a stock has already sprinted ahead
Why investors should care
This isn’t a thesis-busting event. It’s more like a reminder that even gold miners can’t print money forever just because the metal is having a good year. If costs keep climbing, the market may start asking whether Newmont’s rally has already priced in the good news.
Big picture: Newmont still has the setup of a heavyweight with optionality — buybacks, consolidation potential, and a strong sector backdrop — but analyst downgrades usually show up right when the market starts getting a little too comfortable.