Same old Powell playlist
J.P. Morgan Global Research thinks the Fed is about to hit the snooze button again at its April 28-29 meeting. In plain English: no rate cut, no rate hike, just more “we’ll see” energy from Jerome Powell and friends.
That’s notable because the backdrop is getting spicier, not calmer. The Middle East conflict has helped push energy prices higher, which usually makes the Fed even less eager to loosen policy. Powell already telegraphed the general mood at the last meeting in March: wait, watch, and try not to panic.
Why you should care
For investors, the big takeaway is that higher-for-longer may not be going away anytime soon. J.P. Morgan now expects the Fed to hold rates steady for the rest of 2026, with the next move not arriving until a 25 bp hike in the third quarter of 2027.
The wild card, of course, is the labor market. If hiring rolls over hard or the inflation hit from higher energy prices turns into a bigger economic bruise, the Fed could pivot to cuts instead. So the story here isn’t just “no move” — it’s that the Fed is boxed in, with risks pulling in opposite directions.
Big picture
Markets love certainty, and this is the opposite of that. The Fed may be on hold, but your portfolio is still stuck reading the same suspense novel: inflation on one side, growth on the other, and nobody willing to call the ending yet.