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Earnings on deck
Mosaic is basically sitting in the on-deck circle, waiting for its Q1 2026 earnings pitch. The company hasn’t announced a precise report date here, but the market is already lining up expectations: analysts see diluted EPS at $0.18, down sharply from $0.49 a year ago.
Why investors are paying attention
This is one of those reports where the headline number is only half the story. Mosaic lives and dies by crop nutrient pricing, fertilizer demand, and any hint about how tight global supply might get — especially after shares popped more than 4% on April 16 on Strait of Hormuz blockade worries, which would be the kind of supply shock markets love to panic about.
The setup is still pretty meh
The stock has been a laggard over the past year, down 9.9% while the S&P 500 and materials ETF kept doing their victory lap. Analysts are also modeling EPS of $1.65 for the full year, down 27.3% from fiscal 2025, before a rebound in fiscal 2027. So yeah, investors aren’t just looking for a clean quarter — they’re looking for proof the fertilizer cycle hasn’t completely ghosted them.
Big picture: this is less about one quarter and more about whether Mosaic can convince the market that the bottom of the cycle is finally starting to look like a floor, not a trapdoor.