META
Same bull case, slightly less champagne
BofA Securities’ Justin Post is still in Meta’s corner. He reiterated a Buy rating on Monday, but shaved his price target to $820 from $885 — basically the analyst version of saying, “I still like the movie, just maybe not the sequel trailer.”
The near-term numbers still look chunky
Post thinks Meta will clear Wall Street’s bar in the first half of 2026. He’s looking for Q1 revenue of $56 billion and GAAP EPS of $7.44, both above consensus, then Q2 revenue of $60.1 billion and EPS of $7.49. He also expects second-quarter guidance to land in a $57.5 billion to $60.5 billion revenue range, which would still be a pretty healthy growth story.
Why investors care
The real sauce here is Meta’s combo of expense discipline and AI infrastructure spending. Post says job openings fell 33% quarter over quarter, and he expects 2026 expenses to come in around $163 billion, a touch below Street estimates. Translation: Meta is still spending like it’s building the future, but Wall Street is increasingly obsessed with whether those dollars actually show up in ad performance.
The AI bet is doing the heavy lifting
Post also says Meta’s Muse Spark model removes a key overhang, and he believes AI tools will boost the core ad business by improving targeting and automated messaging. He thinks Meta may even raise the low end of its $115 billion to $135 billion capex guide. So yes, the spending is huge — but the bet is that the payoff is even huger.
Big picture: Meta’s story right now is classic Big Tech whiplash: the stock can wobble on spending fears, but the bullish case is still that AI makes the ad engine even more efficient, not less.