SHOP
Still running hot
JPMorgan isn’t exactly tapping the brakes on Shopify. Analyst Bryan Smilek kept an Overweight rating and slapped on a $150 price target, arguing the company is still growing across a bunch of lanes at once — the kind of setup investors love when they’re hunting for “this thing can keep working” stories.
The growth cocktail
The note says Shopify could report first-quarter GMV growth of 32% and gross profit dollar growth of 29% year over year. That’s not just a decent beat-and-raise setup; it’s the sort of math that keeps Wall Street refreshing its spreadsheets like it’s a fantasy football draft board.
What’s supposedly helping?
- SMB demand that’s still hanging in there
- Upmarket and enterprise traction
- Emerging channels like POS and B2B
- Healthy macro trends, even with consumers feeling a little pinched
Smilek also pointed to third-party data that suggests U.S. card-not-present transaction growth may be re-accelerating, plus stronger website traffic and app engagement. In other words: the Shopify storefront machine still seems to be drawing eyeballs and dollars.
Why investors should care
The bigger story is that JPMorgan thinks growth may stay sturdy even as Shopify gets bigger — though it also expects some deceleration later in 2026 thanks to tougher comparisons and currency effects. The stock was already down about 19% year to date in the note, so this is less “moonshot” and more “the runway still looks long.”
Big picture: if Shopify can keep growing GMV and gross profit at this pace, the market may have to keep treating it like a premium software-commerce hybrid instead of a one-trick checkout pony.