ALK
Post-earnings whiplash
Alaska Air Group had one of those earnings calls that makes analysts reach for the coffee and the calculator. The airline posted a bigger-than-expected Q1 loss, missed on revenue by a hair, and then did the corporate version of “we’ll get back to you” by suspending full-year guidance.
The analyst split screen
Not surprisingly, Wall Street responded with a little bit of a shrug and a little bit of optimism:
- BMO Capital kept its Outperform rating and actually raised its price target from $42.50 to $55.
- Susquehanna kept a Positive stance, but cut its target from $55 to $50.
That’s a pretty classic post-earnings tug-of-war: one camp sees upside if the airline can get past fuel volatility and operational noise, while the other is saying, “Cool story, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.”
Why you should care
Alaska Air’s stock dipped after the update, and the real issue isn’t just one messy quarter. It’s the company saying it can’t confidently map out the rest of the year because fuel prices are acting like the plot twist nobody asked for.
For you as an investor, analyst target changes matter less as a prophecy and more as a temperature check. When the same earnings report can produce both a higher target and a lower one, it usually means the market is still arguing with itself about the real runway here.
Big picture
The airline story now hinges on whether Alaska Air can stabilize margins, keep capacity growth modest, and avoid getting mugged by jet fuel. If that happens, the bulls get their $55 case. If not, this looks more like turbulence than takeoff.