Cannabis stocks get a Trump-sized buzz

A headline with a contact high

Cannabis stocks popped after an Axios scoop said President Donald Trump may push to reclassify marijuana as soon as this week. That gave names like Tilray, Canopy Growth, Cronos, and the MSOS ETF a much-needed jolt — because apparently all it takes is one policy rumor to wake up a sleepy sector.

But the process is a little less… vibes-based

Here’s the annoying part for bulls: rescheduling a drug usually means a whole bureaucratic obstacle course — HHS review, proposed rule, public comments, hearings, final rule, the works. That process has been stuck for a while, and even the article notes it has barely moved since 2024.

There is a shortcut under Section 811(d) of the Controlled Substances Act, which could let the attorney general skip the usual slow dance and issue a direct order tied to U.S. treaty obligations. That’s the kind of move that would make regulators and lawyers instantly reach for their stress balls.

The market is pricing the drama, not the certainty

Polymarket still puts the odds of rescheduling by June 30 at just 32%, even if the year-end chance is higher. Translation: investors are not exactly betting the farm on a clean, quick win. If DOJ takes the fast lane, the next shoe is almost certainly a lawsuit — and a judge could slam the brakes before anything becomes permanent.

Why you should care

For cannabis stocks, this is the classic “policy hope vs. legal reality” trade. If Trump’s team actually moves and the rule survives court challenges, that’s a big deal for sentiment, capital access, and the whole sector’s valuation math. If it stalls again, today’s rally could end up looking like a sugar rush.

Big picture: the market just got a fresh dose of legalization optimism, but the legal system still holds the remote control.