HOOD
Earnings night is coming
Robinhood Markets is on deck to report first-quarter results after the bell on Tuesday, and the vibe is basically: will the crypto hangover show up in the brokerage’s wallet?
Analysts are looking for earnings of $0.39 per share on revenue of about $1.14 billion. That would be a nice jump from a year ago, but still a step down from the prior quarter — the kind of mixed tape that leaves investors squinting at the footnotes.
Why crypto matters more than you’d think
Here’s the catch: Robinhood isn’t just a stock app for people who like confetti. It also makes a lot of money when users trade crypto, and cryptocurrencies were 28% of its fourth-quarter transaction-based revenue. So when Bitcoin and Ethereum slide, Robinhood can feel it pretty quickly.
- Bitcoin and other major tokens were under pressure in Q1
- That could mean softer transaction revenue
- And softer transaction revenue is the part investors care about most when they’re trying to judge how sticky the growth story really is
The market is already keeping score
The stock has had a rough year so far, even as it closed up 1.4% on Friday at $84.71. And while short interest is still relatively low, analysts have been trimming price targets, which is Wall Street’s version of raising an eyebrow and saying, “show me.”
Big picture
Robinhood has graduated from meme-stock punchline to real business, but it’s still tethered to the mood swings of retail trading and crypto. If the quarter holds up despite weaker token prices, that’s a good sign the platform is getting sturdier. If not, well, the confetti machine may stay unplugged for a little while longer.