Traders are betting the S&P 500 opens lower

After the victory lap, here comes the hangover

The S&P 500 just ripped to a fresh record close, but traders are already looking at Thursday’s open and thinking: maybe don’t get too comfortable. In Polymarket’s April 23 market, only about 13% of traders were betting on an “Up” open, which is a pretty stark mood swing after Wednesday’s rally.

So what changed?

A lot of the recent fuel came from two things: easing geopolitical fears and an earnings season that’s starting off better than expected. More than 85% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far have beaten estimates, which is the kind of stat that makes investors exhale into their coffee.

But the smoke hasn’t cleared.

• Tensions with Iran are still hanging around like an unwanted sequel.
• Reports of container ship seizures in the Strait of Hormuz have kept energy-supply nerves buzzing.
• Futures slipped 0.46% early Thursday, hinting that the market may want to take a breather.

Why you should care

This isn’t just prediction-market trivia. It’s a tiny snapshot of whether traders think the rally still has legs or if the market is due for a quick reality check. When sentiment flips this fast, it can spill into futures, sector rotation, and the way investors treat the day’s earnings and economic data.

Big picture

The message is basically: the bull case is alive, but the market is no longer pretending risk went to the beach. After a record run, even a small wobble can feel like a plot twist.