FCX
The beat got buried
Freeport-McMoRan did what companies love to do on earnings day: throw out a clean beat on revenue and EPS, then immediately bury the headline under a pile of bad news. Revenue landed at $6.23 billion, adjusted EPS came in at 57 cents, and the quarter itself looked solid enough.
Then came the Grasberg plot twist
The market wasn’t really there for the beat. What grabbed everyone by the collar was the updated outlook for Grasberg, the giant Indonesian mine that keeps acting like the company’s moody superstar. Freeport now says the underground ramp will move slower than expected because of material-handling bottlenecks, with full production pushed to mid-2027.
That matters because the mine is supposed to be a major engine for copper and gold volumes. Instead, Freeport cut its 2026 copper sales forecast to about 3.1 billion pounds from 3.4 billion, and gold sales to 650,000 ounces from 800,000. Translation: less metal out the door, more pressure on the growth story.
Costs are getting in the way too
As if the production delay wasn’t enough, Freeport also flagged fresh cost pressure tied to the Iran conflict, mostly through diesel volatility in Indonesia. The company said March diesel moves alone could imply about a $500 million annualized headwind. That helped push projected net unit costs up to about $1.95 a pound, from a prior $1.75 estimate.
Why investors care
This is the classic earnings-day cocktail: a decent quarter, a nicer-than-expected top line, and then a guidance haircut that steals the spotlight. Freeport is still returning cash, still has a chunky balance sheet, and still has the long-term Grasberg prize in play. But near-term, the story is less “copper supercycle” and more “please hold while the mine catches up.”
Big picture: Freeport’s business is still alive and kicking, but the growth math just got a lot messier — and the market noticed immediately.