Wall Street’s playing “up or down?” at the open

The market’s doing that anxious side-eye thing

The S&P 500 dipped 0.41% on Thursday, but it wasn’t exactly a panic selloff. Think more “I’m fine” while clearly not fine. Investors are juggling fresh headlines about Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, even as earnings are still doing the heavy lifting under the hood.

Bulls still have a case

Polymarket traders are leaning 62% toward an up open on April 24, which is basically the market equivalent of betting the hangover won’t be too bad. Futures were near flat early Friday, suggesting traders think Thursday’s wobble may stay a wobble, not turn into a faceplant.

Earnings are still the market’s favorite caffeine

More than 85% of S&P 500 names reporting so far have beaten EPS expectations, according to FactSet, and Intel’s after-hours pop added more fuel to the optimism train. Meanwhile, Procter & Gamble, Norfolk Southern, and Charter Communications are still on deck, so the tape could get another jolt depending on how those results land.

Chips are carrying a lot of the water

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index hit another milestone, crossing 10,000 for the first time as AI demand keeps the group on a tear. That matters because semis have become one of the market’s main engines — when they’re humming, the broader index tends to look a lot healthier than your average doom-scroll headline would suggest.

Big picture: the S&P 500 is still hanging near the summit, but the market is clearly trading with one eye on earnings and the other on geopolitics. In other words, classic 2026 — calm on the surface, nerves in the plumbing.