The S&P 500 is stretched, not toast

Overbought doesn’t mean over

The S&P 500 hit fresh highs on April 23, and apparently the market decided subtlety was for other people. Short-term momentum is getting stretched, especially in growth and tech, but JPMorgan’s Jason Hunter says this doesn’t look like the kind of blow-off top that sends everyone scrambling for the exits.

The key distinction? The index can be overbought without being exhausted. Markets do this all the time: they get a little too caffeinated, stay that way longer than anyone expected, and keep drifting upward while everyone on the sidelines mutters, “Surely this is it.”

The rally still has a floor

Hunter’s read is pretty straightforward: bulls are still in control as long as the S&P 500 holds above the 6,900–7,000 breakout zone. That’s the area traders are watching like a group chat during earnings week. If it breaks meaningfully lower, the uptrend gets a lot less cute.

A deeper slide below 6,700–6,600 would be the kind of move that actually changes the conversation. But for now, that looks like a distant villain, not the main character.

Same rally, slower tempo

What may be changing is the pace. JPMorgan expects the market to slow down as the index approaches the 7,100–7,300 resistance band, where longer-term trend lines could start acting like a ceiling.

That doesn’t automatically mean red candles and panic. It could just mean the market goes from sprinting to jogging. Think fewer dramatic breakout days, more plodding higher with occasional “is this still working?” moments.

The market is getting picky

Leadership is narrowing too. U.S. growth and tech have been doing the heavy lifting, which means ETFs like QQQ and XLK have had the spotlight, while more cyclical corners like XLI have been along for the ride but not exactly stealing the show.

For investors using broad-market ETFs like SPY, VOO, or IVV, the takeaway is simple:

• the uptrend is still alive,
• the market is getting more selective,
• and support levels matter a lot more than the headlines.

Big picture: this is less “rally’s dead” and more “the market is out of breath, not out of the race.”