Mood check: not great
The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped to 49.8, which is basically the economic version of checking your phone at 2 a.m. and regretting every life choice. It’s an all-time low, and the headline reason here is geopolitical anxiety tied to the Iran war.
Meanwhile, the market is acting like it didn’t get the memo
Here’s the weird part: markets are still hanging near record highs. That doesn’t mean investors are ignoring the fear entirely — it means they’re betting the damage stays contained, or that corporate earnings and liquidity can keep carrying the team while consumers sit on the bench.
Why you should care
Consumer sentiment isn’t just a vibes metric. When people feel lousy, they tend to:
- delay big purchases
- trade down to cheaper brands
- save a little more and spend a little less
That can eventually hit retailers, travel, restaurants, and anyone selling the “treat yourself” version of the economy.
Big picture
This is the classic Wall Street vs. Main Street split: households are clutching their pearls, while stocks are still wearing sunglasses. If sentiment keeps sliding, the market may eventually have to stop partying and read the room.