The refinery is winning, the airlines are sweating
Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is catching a very specific kind of break: jet fuel margins are surging, and much of that fuel is heading overseas where the economics look juicier. If you’re Dangote, that’s basically the dream—sell the hot product where buyers are willing to pay up.
For airlines, it’s a very different mood
The problem is the domestic side of the story. Local airlines rely on the same fuel, and the price spike is landing like a surprise tax on an already fragile business. Some carriers have even threatened to stop flying, which is not exactly the kind of operational update passengers want to hear before booking a ticket.
Why investors should care
This is one of those situations where the same commodity boom creates two completely different winners and losers:
- Dangote can pocket fatter margins if export demand stays strong.
- Nigerian airlines face higher operating costs and tighter cash flow.
- If domestic supply gets squeezed further, the political and economic pressure around fuel pricing could rise fast.
Big picture: this isn’t just about jet fuel. It’s a reminder that in commodity markets, the guy selling the bucket often has a much better day than the people trying to fill it.