Supply chain, meet geopolitics
Europe’s aluminum billet premium has doubled since the Iran war kicked off, thanks to roughly two months of disrupted Middle East supply. In plain English: a semi-finished metal product that many industrial buyers need just got a lot harder — and more expensive — to source.
Why you should care
If you’re in construction or transport, this is the kind of price spike that quietly eats margins before anyone notices. You don’t need to be an aluminum trader to feel it; higher input costs tend to sneak their way into everything from building materials to vehicle components.
The annoying part
The weirdest part is that this isn’t about a flashy consumer-facing product. It’s billet — the unglamorous stuff between raw metal and finished goods. But that’s exactly why it matters: boring inputs are the plumbing of the real economy, and when the pipes clog, everyone pays.
- Supply from the Middle East has been disrupted for about two months
- European premiums have doubled since the war began
- Construction and transport buyers are getting squeezed
Big picture: geopolitics doesn’t just move oil and defense stocks — sometimes it shows up in the price of the metal hiding inside your windows, trucks, and infrastructure projects.