HOOD
Crypto went from rocket fuel to headwind
Robinhood’s latest quarter was basically a reminder that what zips up can also zip down. Crypto revenue fell 47% to $134 million, trading volumes almost got halved, and total revenue of $1.067 billion missed estimates by 7%. The market’s reaction was immediate: the stock got smacked down to $73 on Wednesday, because apparently investors don’t love when their growth engine suddenly needs a jump start.
The rest of the business isn’t exactly asleep
Here’s the part that keeps the story from turning into a total faceplant. Transaction revenue still rose 7% year over year to $623 million, helped by a 320% surge in event contracts revenue. Prediction markets alone hit a record 8.8 billion units traded in the quarter, which is very much Robinhood trying to become more than the app you use to buy meme stocks at 11:47 p.m.
A few more bright spots:
- Gold subscribers jumped 36% to 4.34 million
- The margin book hit a record $17 billion
- Options revenue climbed 8%
- Equities revenue jumped 46%
Bernstein says: don’t panic, maybe
Bernstein’s Gautam Chhugani still has a $130 target on the stock, arguing the weak crypto numbers were already baked into the price. The firm also pointed to Robinhood’s coming Rothera joint venture with Susquehanna, which could give it more control over event contracts instead of relying on third-party venues like Kalshi.
Robinhood is also leaning into Trump Accounts with BNY, where it’s the sole initial trustee and expects to invest $100 million. That’s a lot of moving parts for one app, but the bigger picture is simple: the crypto story looks softer, while the prediction-markets and subscription story is getting more interesting by the quarter.
Big picture: Robinhood is trying to evolve from a crypto-heavy trading app into a broader financial super-app. Investors are basically deciding whether that’s the start of a real second act—or just a flashier way to say “please don’t look at crypto this quarter.”