ORCL
SMCI
The new Oracle pitch
Oracle is no longer being sold as just a database dinosaur that somehow survived Y2K. The story now is that it’s morphing into a foundational AI infrastructure utility — the kind of company that gets paid to power the picks and shovels behind the AI gold rush.
That’s the core reason the stock is getting a fresh bullish stamp: the market is rethinking Oracle’s giant backlog, its multicloud push, and the idea that a heavy capex bill today could translate into a much fatter moat tomorrow.
Why the bulls keep squinting at the same numbers
The headline number here is the backlog, which is now being framed as a jaw-dropping $553 billion. That’s not “nice quarter” money. That’s “you might want to sit down before opening the spreadsheet” money.
The bull case goes like this:
- Oracle is building out AI infrastructure fast
- Partners are helping fund parts of the buildout
- The company’s BYOH model and off-grid power projects could support higher-margin growth later
- Multicloud expansion gives Oracle more ways to show up in the AI stack without trying to own the whole circus
But every AI fairy tale has a plot twist
Of course, the risk list is doing a lot of work here. The biggest eyebrow-raiser is concentration risk, with roughly $300 billion of OpenAI-related backlog reportedly hanging over the story.
And then there’s the usual soup of modern tech risk:
- Credit markets getting cranky just as capex ramps up
- SMCI supply chain disruptions messing with the hardware ecosystem
- Geopolitical threats around major data center locations
Big picture
If you’re an Oracle investor, this is the tension in one sentence: the company is trying to convince the market that a massive spending spree is actually the down payment on a prettier margin story later.
That’s either an AI masterstroke or an expensive cosplay session, depending on how the backlog converts. Big picture: the bull case is getting louder, but so are the risks.