Another notch lower
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index slipped 0.6% in March, wiping out February’s improvement and then some. If you like your economic signals neat and cheerful, this one isn’t it.
Why investors should care
The LEI is designed to sniff out where the economy is headed, not where it’s been. So when it rolls over, it’s a little like your car’s dashboard lighting up before the engine starts coughing—annoying now, potentially expensive later.
A weaker leading index can imply:
- softer business spending down the line
- slower hiring momentum
- more pressure on risk assets if growth expectations keep fading
The market read-through
This doesn’t scream “recession tomorrow,” but it does keep the slower-growth narrative alive. For stocks, that usually means investors keep juggling the same awkward tradeoff: hope for easier policy and lower rates, but worry about what prompted the slowdown in the first place.
Big picture: one data point never makes the whole movie, but this one keeps the plot moving in a very un-fun direction for growth bulls.