The aluminum market just got a little dramatic
JPMorgan’s base and precious metals research head, Greg Shearer, says the aluminum market is looking at a “very large supply hole.” In plain English: demand is outrunning supply, and that usually means prices start acting like they’ve had three espressos.
Shearer told Bloomberg Television that, very near term, prices could push toward $4,000 per metric ton. That’s not just a headline number — it’s the kind of move that can change margins across the industrial world.
Why investors should care
Higher aluminum prices can be a tailwind for producers and miners that sell the stuff. But for companies that rely on aluminum — think autos, aerospace, packaging, and construction — it can turn into a sneaky little tax on profits.
A few things are in the mix here:
- Middle East conflict risk is adding fuel to the price move
- Supply looks tight just as the market is trying to digest fresh geopolitical uncertainty
- If prices stay elevated, downstream users may have to eat higher costs or pass them on to customers
Bigger than one metal
This is one of those classic commodity moments where the knock-on effects matter as much as the headline. If aluminum keeps climbing, it can quietly squeeze margins in all the places you don’t notice until earnings season rolls around.
Big picture: when a base metal starts looking scarce, the ripple effects are rarely subtle. Companies that use a lot of aluminum may need to hedge, adjust pricing, or just brace for a less-friendly cost backdrop.