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Hot streak, cold shower?
The Nasdaq 100 just logged a 15.64% April gain, its best month since October 2002. That’s the kind of number that makes growth-stock fans do a little happy dance — and makes everyone else squint at the screen and ask, “Wait, is this already getting a little frothy?”
The setup is classic market drama: after a monster month, the question stops being “What just happened?” and becomes “Okay, what usually happens next?”
History is not exactly screaming “buy the dip”
The article digs into every month since 1985 when the Nasdaq 100 jumped at least 15%, and the message is basically: not all big rallies are created equal.
- Short-term momentum has usually lingered for about a month.
- A one-year hold after those giant pops has been much less reliable.
- The 12-month win rate was only a little better than a coin flip.
Translation: yes, the train can keep rolling for a bit. But if you’re sprinting after it because it looks shiny, history has a few “careful now” episodes to show you.
The market mood matters more than the headline move
The really important wrinkle is regime. When the rally happened during a bear-market recovery, returns were often juicy. When it happened late in a euphoric bull run — think dot-com-era energy drink levels of optimism — the follow-through was brutal.
That’s the investor lesson here. A giant monthly gain doesn’t automatically mean the rally is healthy, or even durable. It can be:
- a rebound after panic-selling,
- a mid-cycle continuation,
- or the market equivalent of yelling “last call!”
Big picture
If you’re sitting on tech exposure, this isn’t a reason to panic. But it is a reminder that the best months often set up the hardest decisions. Momentum can absolutely keep working — until it doesn’t. And history says the real question isn’t whether the Nasdaq can stay hot. It’s whether the move is a reset… or a warning label.