Coinbase is riding the crypto wave into earnings

The market’s favorite crypto proxy is flexing

Coinbase doesn’t need much to get moving these days. A little policy optimism, a little Ethereum hype, and suddenly COIN is acting like it just got invited to the cool kids’ table again. Shares rose about 7% Monday as investors leaned into improving sentiment across crypto-related names.

The policy angle is doing the heavy lifting

One of the bigger sparks here is Coinbase backing a Senate compromise on stablecoin rewards — the kind of wonky Washington drama that usually puts people to sleep, unless you own crypto stocks. The deal could help revive the stalled CLARITY Act by limiting rewards that look too much like bank deposit interest, while still preserving incentives tied to real platform activity. Translation: crypto firms get to keep a key perk, and banks don’t get to throw a full tantrum.

Earnings are the real test

All the policy optimism in the world won’t matter much if Coinbase’s numbers don’t cooperate. The company is set to report earnings on May 7, with analysts looking for EPS of just 26 cents on $1.50 billion in revenue. That’s a pretty sharp drop from last year’s juicier comparison, which means investors are going to be laser-focused on trading volume, subscription revenue, and whether the crypto market’s bounce is actually showing up in Coinbase’s business.

Why you should care

This is the classic Coinbase setup: the stock often trades like a high-beta mood ring for crypto itself.

• If Bitcoin and Ethereum stay hot, COIN usually gets to ride shotgun.
• If the policy backdrop improves, that adds another layer of support.
• If earnings disappoint, though, all the excitement can evaporate faster than a meme coin rally.

Big picture: Coinbase is headed into earnings with the wind at its back — but this stock has a habit of making investors earn every smile.