HOOD
ICE
ETF launch? Not so fast
Wall Street thought it had a shiny new product ready to roll: prediction market ETFs. Instead, the SEC walked in like the person at the party who reads the fine print and said, “Actually, we need a little more information.”
The pause hits a crop of filings from Roundhill, Bitwise, and GraniteShares that together cover more than two dozen funds. The first wave was supposed to be election-themed, with other filings aimed at tech layoffs, recession odds, and even a Bitwise fund tied to whether crude oil can top $120 a barrel this year. Very normal, very 2026.
Robinhood is already cashing the checks
The irony here is delicious: Robinhood is already making real money off the same prediction-market craze these ETFs are trying to package for retail. Its "other transaction revenue" — mostly event contracts — hit $147 million in Q1, up 320% from a year earlier, while customers traded a record 8.8 billion contracts.
That’s the part investors should care about. If the SEC keeps tightening the screws, the ETF launch gets delayed. If the agency eventually relents, the market could still get a much bigger on-ramp for prediction bets, and Robinhood is already standing near the front of that parade.
The bigger picture
Roundhill’s own prospectus warned about insider trading risk and the possibility of nasty losses with little recourse if outcomes get disputed or revised. In other words: this isn’t your grandma’s S&P 500 ETF.
Big picture: the SEC may be slowing the rollout, but it’s not killing the concept — and when a market is already throwing off revenue like this, Wall Street usually finds a way to come back for seconds.