CRCL
Bernstein’s still wearing the bull costume
Circle just got a fresh thumbs-up from Bernstein, which kept its Outperform rating and slapped on a $190 price target. Translation: the stock has already had a good five days, and Bernstein is basically saying, “Cute rally, but there may be more room.”
Why the analysts are still vibing
The big worry for Circle is pretty simple: lower interest rates make the reserve-income machine less juicy. Bernstein said reserve income fell 11% quarter-over-quarter, which is the kind of math that makes investors squint at their spreadsheets.
But Circle’s not exactly standing around with empty pockets. Bernstein pointed to:
- USDC supply hitting $77 billion in Q1
- On-platform balances of $13.7 billion, or about 18% of total supply
- Adjusted EBITDA of $151 million, which beat expectations even though revenue came in a bit light
So yes, revenue of $694 million missed estimates by around 4%, but the profitability picture held together better than the top line did.
Arc and AI are the shiny new side quests
Bernstein also flagged Circle’s Arc blockchain and its “agentic” AI payments pitch as a possible growth engine. That matters because Circle is trying to prove it’s more than a stablecoin company that lives and dies by rate moves.
And if Arc’s token presale and future mainnet launch turn into real usage, investors may start treating Circle less like a one-trick pony and more like a payments infrastructure play with multiple ways to win.
Big picture: Bernstein’s message is basically that Circle’s rate headache is real, but USDC growth, improving earnings power, and the Arc story may still keep the stock in the fast lane.