Beef, meet your supply problem
The beef market is having one of those “this is not a great time to need more cows” moments. Prices are up 16% over the past year, and the root cause isn’t some mystery on Wall Street — it’s the U.S. cattle herd shrinking to its lowest level since 1951 after years of drought hammered ranchers across Texas, Oklahoma, and the Great Plains.
Why the squeeze matters
When ranchers have fewer cattle, the math gets rude fast:
- Less supply means higher prices at the grocery store and in restaurants
- Tight inventories can linger for years, not months
- The American Farm Bureau Federation says supply could keep tightening through 2026 and 2027 before any meaningful recovery
That means this isn’t just a headline for your backyard grill. It’s a slow-burn inflation story that can pressure food service margins and keep meat costs sticky even if other parts of inflation cool off.
The policy wrinkle
Trump is now delaying signing orders that were meant to target beef prices, which adds a political layer to an already messy market. In other words, the government can try to nudge the situation, but it can’t magically grow a bigger cattle herd out of thin air.
Big picture: if beef stays expensive, the pain doesn’t stop at the steak aisle — it can show up everywhere from burger chains to supermarket receipts.