SRE
Texas-sized optimism
Sempra just got a bullish call that boils down to one thing: Oncor’s load pipeline in Texas could be way bigger than the market is baking in. The analyst says the 127 GW qualifying load forecast opens up a much larger long-term transmission and distribution opportunity than investors may have priced in.
Why investors should care
Utilities don’t usually get people buzzing over transmission lines, but this is where the math starts to look spicy. The thesis is that if just 20 GW of that 127 GW pipeline converts, it could add about $17 billion of incremental rate base for Sempra.
That matters because rate base is basically the utility version of a growth engine: the bigger it gets, the more capital the company can deploy and recover through regulated returns. In other words, boring on the surface, but potentially very profitable under the hood.
The new price tag on the story
The analyst’s price target is $163, which implies about 76% upside. The valuation call leans on a 21x forward earnings multiple and a 2030 EPS estimate of $7.74.
Big picture: this isn’t a flashy AI trade or a meme-stock moonshot. It’s a long-dated utility growth thesis, and sometimes the market’s favorite surprise is just a bigger pipeline than expected.