NFLX
Ads, sports, and a whole lot of runway
Netflix is getting another vote of confidence from Wall Street, this time from BofA Securities analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich, who reiterated a Buy rating and kept her $125 price target. In plain English: she still thinks the streamer’s growth story has legs, even if the stock already lives in the premium aisle.
The big driver here isn’t just more binge-watching. Ehrlich pointed to Netflix’s ad-supported tier, which has apparently gone from a side dish to a main course. Global monthly viewers have climbed to more than 250 million from 94 million last year, and ad revenue is expected to jump from about $1.5 billion in 2025 to roughly $3 billion in 2026. That’s not couch-cushion money — that’s a real new profit engine.
The NFL keeps showing up to the party
Netflix is also leaning harder into live sports, which is a little like a streaming company deciding it wants to host the Super Bowl party too. Ehrlich highlighted Netflix’s expanded NFL deal, including three additional games and a partnership extension through 2029. The package now includes the league’s first Thanksgiving Eve game, an Australia opener, and another late-season matchup.
Why should you care? Because sports bring live audiences, and live audiences are catnip for advertisers. Netflix doesn’t seem interested in buying every sports right under the sun; it’s going for selective, high-impact events that boost eyeballs without turning the whole business into cable TV 2.0.
Still a long runway, even at this size
Ehrlich also argued that Netflix is still only scratching the surface of its addressable market. The company is serving about 330 million subscriber households against an estimated 800 million global smart-TV households. Translation: Netflix still has room to grow before it bumps into the ceiling.
The stock’s next big catalyst is the July earnings report, where investors will be watching whether that ads-plus-sports formula is translating into actual dollars, not just nice analyst slides.
Big picture: Netflix is trying to do something every streamer dreams about — turn attention into ad money without annoying users into hitting “cancel.” If it pulls that off, Wall Street will keep treating the stock like a luxury item.