MSTR
Wall Street says “nice,” traders say “show me”
Strategy Inc. got a fresh thumbs-up from TD Cowen, which nudged its price target to $400 from $395. That sounds bullish — and it is — but MSTR still dropped about 6% on Monday to roughly $165. Translation: the market is in one of those moods where even good news gets side-eyed.
The Bitcoin treadmill is spinning faster
The analyst note pointed to Strategy’s increasingly aggressive Bitcoin accumulation. The company has already bought more BTC partway through Q2 than TD Cowen expected for the entire quarter, and the firm now sees roughly 100,000 BTC purchased in Q2 alone. That would push full-year BTC yield estimates to 19.8% from 18.2%.
Strategy also said preferred equity issuance did most of the heavy lifting on capital raising in Q2 — about $1.95 billion raised, with nearly all of it going straight into Bitcoin purchases. So if you’re looking for the business model in one sentence, it’s basically: raise money, buy Bitcoin, repeat.
The balance sheet gets a little less messy
TD Cowen also liked Strategy’s $1.5 billion repurchase of out-of-the-money convertible notes at an 8% discount to face value. That move trims future dilution, improves credit quality, and takes some refinancing risk off the table. In other words, less “casino chips flying everywhere,” more “we found the receipt and cleaned up the stack.”
Why investors care
This is still a Bitcoin proxy dressed up as a software stock, and the stock’s behavior keeps reminding everyone of that. Strategy now holds 843,738 BTC, and the market is basically deciding whether that pile of digital gold is a genius treasury strategy or just a very dramatic levered bet.
The chart says momentum is shaky: the stock broke below its 20-day EMA and is testing support near the 50-day zone. Big picture: Wall Street may love the Bitcoin accumulation story, but MSTR still has to convince the market it deserves a premium for living that story every single day.