AAPL
The phone party is over
Counterpoint Research is basically saying the smartphone market walked into the room wearing sunglasses and still got hit with a dimmer switch. For April 2026, the firm expects global sell-through to fall 10% year over year, with Apple one of the rare names still showing growth while most of the pack stumbles.
Apple gets to be the cool kid
Apple is expected to be the only top-five brand posting year-over-year growth, thanks to demand for the iPhone 17 series and early traction for the iPhone 17e. That’s the kind of “everyone else is sweating, we’re fine” dynamic investors tend to like — especially when premium devices keep finding buyers even as the broader consumer gets a little more choosy.
Samsung, China, and the rest of the pileup
Samsung is still doing fine with the Galaxy S26, but not fine enough to offset softer demand in its A-series lineup across places like India, Latin America, and Eastern Europe. Meanwhile, Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, realme, and Transsion are all dealing with the same villain: higher prices, weaker discounts, and tighter supply in expansion markets.
Why this matters
Counterpoint’s bigger call is the one that should make supply-chain folks sit up straighter: full-year 2026 smartphone shipments are projected to fall roughly 14% to their lowest level since 2013. At the same time, average selling prices are expected to rise about 14%, which is a fancy way of saying consumers may be paying more for less excitement.
Big picture: this isn’t just a handset story — it’s a read on consumer demand, premium pricing power, and how much room there is left to stretch the smartphone upgrade cycle before people start holding onto their old brick-for-evil-genius longer.