HWM
The upgrade in plain English
Howmet Aerospace got the kind of note investors like to sticky-note to their monitor: an upgrade to Buy. The reason isn’t some mysterious Wall Street vibe shift — it’s that the company’s earnings engine looks a lot stronger than expected, even with the stock already wearing a pretty demanding valuation.
What’s powering the machine?
Q1 2026 was a flex, not a fluke. Revenue rose 19% year over year, adjusted EBITDA jumped 32%, and adjusted EPS climbed 42%. That’s the kind of combo platter that gets analysts to stop squinting at the multiple and start asking whether the business deserves it.
The big story is the revenue mix:
- commercial aero spares are taking up a larger slice of the pie
- that slice is also higher-margin
- and it’s less tied to the boom-and-bust mood swings of new aircraft production
In other words, Howmet is looking a little less like a cyclical passenger and a little more like a recurring-revenue-ish adult in the room. Same aerospace exposure, but with a sturdier engine under the hood.
Why you should care
For investors, this matters because a business that grows faster and sells more profitable stuff can keep surprising the market upside-down. If commercial aero spares and IGT stay hot, Howmet’s earnings power may be more durable than people thought — which is a fancy way of saying the stock’s case got stronger, even if the valuation still asks some uncomfortable questions.
Big picture: sometimes the market sees a good company, and then a quarter comes along and reminds everyone it might actually be a better one.