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The market’s doing its morning tarot reading
The S&P 500 snapped a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, and now traders are basically asking: was that the bottom, or just a nice little bounce before reality shows up? Polymarket says there’s a 66% chance the index opens higher on Thursday, which is about as close as finance gets to a weather forecast.
What lit the fuse?
A few things helped the bulls stretch their legs:
- Oil prices fell hard after President Trump said the administration was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, easing some geopolitical panic.
- Treasury yields cooled off after recently freaking out investors like an unskippable horror-movie jump scare.
- Fed minutes reminded everyone that rate hikes are still on the table if inflation keeps getting sticky because of the Middle East conflict. Fun times.
Nvidia is still the market’s favorite overachiever
Nvidia’s latest quarter gave the market another AI confidence boost: it beat expectations and raised guidance, even if the stock got a little moody in after-hours trading. Translation: the AI trade still has juice, but investors are getting pickier about just how much juice they’re willing to pay for.
Walmart is also set to report before the bell, so if you care about the consumer, inflation, or whether shoppers are still acting normal, that one matters too.
Big picture
This isn’t just a one-day futures blip. If oil stays soft, yields stay calmer, and big earners keep delivering, the market gets room to breathe. If not, this rebound could turn into one of those classic “nice try” rallies.