MSFT
The AI hype is starting to look more like a business plan
BNP Paribas analyst Stefan Slowinski just gave Microsoft another vote of confidence, and this one comes with a pretty spicy price target: $555, or about 33% upside from the May 22 close. The core message? Microsoft’s AI strategy is no longer living off vibes alone. Copilot adoption is improving, Azure growth is speeding up, and the OpenAI relationship is looking a lot less like a soap opera.
Copilot: from demo bait to actual usage
Remember when investors worried Copilot was basically a flashy PowerPoint feature nobody would pay for? Slowinski says that narrative is fading fast. He pointed to better engagement across Excel, PowerPoint, and Word, plus improving user sentiment and stronger retention trends.
BNP Paribas now thinks Copilot seats could climb above 25 million by the end of fiscal 2026, which would be a pretty serious jump from where things stood just two quarters ago. In plain English: Microsoft is turning its giant Microsoft 365 base into an AI distribution machine. That’s the kind of unfair advantage Wall Street loves to squint at and call “moat.”
Azure is doing the heavy lifting
The cloud side of the story is also getting juiced. Slowinski said BNP Paribas is still modeling Azure growth above 40% for the next several quarters, helped by Microsoft’s growing AI infrastructure buildout.
A few facilities are doing a lot of the narrative work here:
- Fairwater Wisconsin is now live
- Fairwater Atlanta is nearing full-scale deployment
- More AI capacity should flow through into Azure revenue as calendar 2026 rolls on
That’s the kind of backdrop that can keep Microsoft looking less like a sleepy software giant and more like a full-stack AI landlord.
The OpenAI question mark is shrinking
For months, one of the big Microsoft worries was whether its OpenAI relationship might turn into a messy breakup or an expensive custody battle. Slowinski thinks those risks have eased after updates to the partnership removed AGI-related concerns.
He also pointed to OpenAI’s reported $122 billion funding round and recent legal wins, which could make a near-term IPO more realistic. Translation: the drama isn’t gone, but it’s no longer the biggest cloud over the stock.
Big picture: Microsoft is still one of the cleanest ways to play AI without betting on a single chatbot headline. If Copilot keeps gaining traction and Azure keeps flexing, bulls get to keep telling the same story—with better numbers this time.