AI spending: meet the party pooper
Wall Street’s latest vibe check on Big Tech is less “to the moon” and more “maybe keep an umbrella handy.” A Wednesday post from The Kobeissi Letter says the net notional value of outstanding credit default swaps on major tech companies hit a record $12.5 billion, up another $1 billion just in Q2 2026.
That matters because CDS are basically insurance policies on debt. When traders buy more of them, it usually means they’re getting a little nervous about credit risk. Not panic-selling-the-house nervous, but definitely “let’s not pretend everything is fine” nervous.
The AI bill is getting real
The trigger here isn’t some random spreadsheet glitch. It’s the sheer amount of money being poured into AI infrastructure — data centers, chips, power systems, the whole sci-fi shopping cart.
According to the piece:
- Oracle leads the CDS pack at $6.5 billion
- Amazon and Alphabet sit at $2 billion each
- Microsoft is at $1 billion
- Meta is at $800 million
- Nvidia is at $200 million
The broader worry is simple: companies are spending like they’re building the next internet, while borrowing costs, inflation, and supply-chain bottlenecks are all hanging around like uninvited guests.
Why investors should care
This doesn’t mean Big Tech is suddenly falling apart. It does mean the market is stress-testing the AI boom’s financing side, not just the revenue story. If the buildout keeps outrunning the payoff, investors may start asking the awkward question: is this a gold rush, or a very expensive treadmill?
Big picture: the AI trade is still alive and kicking — but Wall Street is clearly buying insurance before it puts the champagne on ice.