The bill nobody wanted
The American Gaming Association says prediction markets are turning into a $1 billion tax-revenue drain for states. That’s a pretty loud way of saying, “Hey, this thing is getting too big to ignore.”
Bill Miller, the group’s president and CEO, argues these platforms aren’t being properly regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Translation: the industry may be operating in a gray zone that’s looking less gray by the day.
Why investors should care
If regulators decide prediction markets need tighter oversight, that could mean:
- higher compliance costs
- slower product rollout
- more legal uncertainty
- less room for the platforms to scale like a crypto-fueled startup in 2021
And when lawmakers smell lost tax revenue, they usually stop being philosophical pretty quickly.
Big picture
Prediction markets have been selling themselves as the new frontier for event-based trading. But if state governments feel like they’re getting left with an empty cookie jar, you can bet they’ll want a bigger piece of the action.