ORCL
Oracle’s AI tab is getting a lot longer
Oracle stock slipped as investors leaned a little harder into one of the market’s favorite hobbies: worrying about the bill. The company’s AI infrastructure spend keeps swelling, and BNP Paribas says that’s exactly what’ll dominate the conversation when Oracle reports fiscal fourth-quarter results.
The number everyone’s side-eyeing
BNP’s Stefan Slowinski says Oracle could guide fiscal 2027 capex to somewhere between $80 billion and $100 billion as it pushes ahead with more Stargate campuses. For context, that’s the kind of number that makes even the most caffeinated growth investors pause and ask, “Wait, how much?”
The bank raised its own capex estimate to $83 billion, well above the roughly $60 billion consensus. And if you’re wondering why the spending keeps climbing, the analyst points to newer Nvidia GPUs, inflation, and a growing list of AI buildouts that need real-world concrete, power, and cash.
Bullish, but with a side of caution
Slowinski still likes the setup. BNP kept its Outperform rating and $283 price target, and expects Oracle to mostly meet expectations on fiscal fourth-quarter results, including OCI growth near consensus. He also thinks Oracle will stick to its fiscal 2027 revenue guide of $89 billion.
Still, there are a few wrinkles:
- Oracle’s new CFO, Hilary Maxson, is making her first appearance on the earnings call.
- BNP’s reseller checks showed softer trends in database and SaaS outside OCI.
- Investors are also watching the timing of Oracle’s previously announced $20 billion ATM issuance, because yes, the financing plot keeps thickening.
Why investors care
Oracle is trying to do two things at once: become a bigger AI cloud player and convince investors that the spending won’t eat the whole pie. That’s a tough balancing act. If management sounds confident on growth and financing, the stock can keep its AI-premium glow. If not, the market may keep treating every capex update like a jump scare.
Big picture: Oracle’s AI story still has plenty of momentum — but now the market wants receipts, not just ambition.