The AI IPO derby is officially on
OpenAI confidentially filed paperwork for an IPO on Monday, which is the corporate version of texting the group chat: “You guys still coming?” It’s joining SpaceX and Anthropic in a bizarrely huge lineup of private companies that could hit Wall Street in the next few months.
The catch? This may not be a friendly race. Bankers reportedly think whichever name files first gets the juiciest investor appetite, while the last one out could end up selling into a more crowded room. In other words: first mover gets the best seat; everyone else gets the folding chair near the bathroom.
Why public investors should care
Even though OpenAI itself is still private, the ripple effects hit public names too:
- Microsoft is OpenAI’s biggest outside investor, so any valuation fireworks around OpenAI can splash onto its AI narrative.
- Amazon and Alphabet are tied to Anthropic, giving you another way to play the same “who wins AI?” story.
- Nvidia could be the clearest hardware beneficiary if the AI spending spree keeps going, since all this model-building burns through chips like a teenager with a gas card.
The problem with going last
There’s also a valuation psychology trap here. Anthropic has already reportedly pulled ahead of OpenAI in private market value, and Polymarket traders are betting Anthropic beats OpenAI to the IPO punch. If that happens, OpenAI may have to price its debut with less hype juice left in the tank.
Big picture: the IPO market is turning into an AI poker game, and the public companies orbiting these startups are getting a seat at the table whether they asked for one or not.