SPCX
Wall Street finally shows up
SpaceX just crossed into the “too big to ignore” club, and Wall Street finally brought a notepad. CFRA’s Keith Snyder initiated coverage with a Sell rating and a $115 price target, which is basically the analyst version of saying, “Nice rocket ship… but have you priced in the moon yet?”
The call matters because SpaceX has become a market darling before it’s even had much of a public-market referee. The stock is up more than 55% since its June 12 debut, and the company’s valuation has sprinted to around $2.75 trillion. CFRA, though, thinks investors are paying up for a lot of future magic that hasn’t actually landed on Earth yet.
Starlink is carrying the weight
Snyder’s argument isn’t that SpaceX is a bad business. It’s that the business mix is getting weirdly grand. Starlink is the real cash machine today, with the company’s filing showing $11.4 billion in 2025 revenue for Connectivity, versus $4.1 billion from Space and $3.2 billion from AI operations.
That’s the part investors should watch. Starlink has real scale, real customers, and real operating leverage — connectivity operating income reportedly jumped to $4.4 billion from $469 million in 2023. In other words: the internet-from-space thing is working. The “everything company” thing? Much more of a maybe.
The AI dream is doing a lot of heavy lifting
CFRA’s bigger gripe is that a chunky slice of SpaceX’s valuation is being pinned on AI ambitions that are still very much in the sketchbook phase. The company’s AI segment includes Grok, X, ads, subscriptions, data licensing, and giant computing clusters, but Snyder says the market is effectively paying for a future that hasn’t been proven commercially.
He also took a shot at management’s giant TAM math, calling the $28.5 trillion opportunity estimate “a complete fantasy.” Which, fair: if your total addressable market is basically the size of the U.S. economy, maybe the PowerPoint got a little carried away.
The big picture
CFRA’s sum-of-the-parts math lands near $1.22 trillion for 2026 fair value — way below where the stock trades and below even the more ambitious scenarios. Add in heavy capex, negative free cash flow, and Musk’s supervoting control, and the bear case is basically: this is a great company, but maybe not a great price.
Big picture: SpaceX is getting treated like a post-reality platform company. CFRA just reminded everyone that even the coolest rocket still needs gravity.