SPCX
The float is tiny. For now.
Ross Gerber wants investors to zoom in on one boring-sounding thing that can make a very un-boring difference: SpaceX's lock-up schedule. According to the chart he shared, only 4.9% of shares are in the free float right now, which is basically the financial version of “the club is packed, but the doors are still locked.”
The unlocks start creeping higher
The timeline in the post suggests the tradable share count keeps ratcheting up through the second half of 2026:
- Free float could hit 11.8% in August
- Then 25.1% by late October
- Around 40% by December
- And roughly 50.8% by June 2027
That’s a big deal because more shares available usually means more potential volatility, more pressure on the price, and less of that scarcity premium traders love to chase.
The Musk-sized moment
The biggest milestone is June 12, 2027, when Elon Musk's 46.1% stake becomes eligible for sale. The chart suggests the free float could jump almost overnight from 50.8% to 96.9% once that block is unlocked. Translation: this isn’t just a nitpicky cap-table note — it’s the kind of event that can reshape how the market prices the stock.
Big picture: SpaceX has gone from post-IPO party mode to the reality of a very complicated shareholder structure. And when a company this hyped starts unlocking a lot more stock, traders tend to pay attention whether they want to or not.