FDX
The quarter was fine. The spreadsheet was the problem.
FedEx actually did the thing investors asked for: it beat estimates, posting adjusted EPS of $6.31 on $25.0 billion of revenue. So why was the stock acting like it had stepped on a rake? Because the company’s fiscal-year makeover is turning the comparison chart into a bit of a circus.
Same company, new calendar, fewer easy answers
Last January, FedEx’s board approved a shift from a May 31 fiscal year-end to December 31, and that change just made the near-term numbers much harder to read. The company now expects calendar 2026 revenue growth of about 11% and adjusted EPS of $16.90 to $18.10, but that guidance landed below what some investors were mentally pricing in for fiscal 2027.
- FedEx expects June-to-December 2026 EPS of $11.30, or roughly 20% growth year over year.
- That supports its calendar 2026 outlook, but the transition period adds extra noise.
- Early 2026 results will also take a hit from incentive comp and stranded FedEx Freight costs.
BofA still likes the story
Bank of America called the underlying quarter solid, pointing to pricing strength, better shipment mix, and tight cost control. Analyst Ken Hoexter reiterated a Buy and lifted his price target to $378 from $376, arguing the long-term setup still looks healthy thanks to network integration and mid-teens operating income growth through 2029.
Why investors care
This is one of those classic Wall Street moments where the business looks better than the headline reaction. FedEx is still trying to prove it can keep the earnings engine humming while it rewrites the calendar — and for now, that transition is doing a surprisingly good job of messing with everyone’s models. Big picture: the package business is fine, but the accounting optics are giving traders a mild headache.