UBER
Waymo is still the 800-pound robotaxi in the room
BTIG’s Jake Fuller basically said the quiet part out loud: Uber’s AV strategy is cool, but not yet stock-moving cool. The firm kept its Buy rating and $100 price target, yet argued that investors still don’t give Uber much credit for U.S. rideshare because Waymo looks like the heavyweight champ of autonomous driving.
The math is doing Uber no favors
Here’s the awkward part. BTIG estimates there are about 4,100 paid robotaxis across 11 U.S. cities, and roughly 3,800 of them are Waymos. Uber’s app may show around 1,000 autonomous vehicles in the U.S., but most of those are Waymo vehicles — meaning Uber’s truly exclusive non-Waymo fleet is still tiny.
That leaves the company in a weird middle zone: it’s the demand app, the marketplace, the aggregator, the middleman — pick your favorite buzzword — but it doesn’t yet own enough of the autonomous experience to make investors sit up and clap.
The long game is still the game
BTIG isn’t throwing cold water on the whole thesis. It thinks Uber can eventually become the traffic cop for a fragmented AV market, where multiple fleets plug into one platform. The catch? That future may not show up until 2027 or 2028, when Uber’s exclusive AV fleet could finally reach the thousands.
In other words: the story is still alive, but it’s moving at “slow-burn prestige drama” speed, not “instant breakout hit.” For now, Uber’s near-term setup still leans on mobility, delivery, ads, and Uber One subscriptions — not robotaxis saving the day next quarter.
Big picture
Uber popped nearly 3% on Friday, which is nice. But the bigger investor question is whether the company can turn its AV partnerships into real ownership of the rideshare future before Waymo locks in the market. Until then, you’re looking at a stock with a good narrative, a decent chart bounce, and a very patient payoff schedule.